With the nearing release of Catching Fire, the second film in the Hunger Games series, controversy is reigniting around marketing and merchandising tie-ins to the film. The film’s enormous success, especially with a wildly loyal, younger audience, practically begs to be cashed in on. However, doing so is precarious business, due to its undeniably dark story line –which is far more Lord of the Flies than Harry Potter in nature.

Still, studio Lionsgate is increasingly introducing new partnerships. But do they fit with their targeted audiences? We investigated using Exponential’s data to analyze the online behaviors of 141,075 Hunger Game fans. See our findings and their applications below. May the data be ever in their favor…

1. Subway’s Fiery Footlongs: A fast food chain releasing a limited edition of sandwiches for a film about post-apocalyptic starvation? Wow. Sounds like a recipe for a PR nightmare at first, but it makes a little more sense the way Subway explains it. The collaboration aims to deliver “unique film experiences” to Subway costumers who are Hunger Games fans, attract new ones and support the charity “Feeding America”. Meanwhile, Lionsgate expects the partnership to help them expand their audience.

Is there an audience for it?  As far as Subway’s goal is concerned, our data suggests that this tie-in is far from “insane” as alleged, but actually aligns well with the profile and palate of existing Hunger Games Fans, right down to the Sriracha sauce; fans will likely salivate over the famous Thai-origin condiment, since they’re more than 40 times more interested in Thai cuisine than other internet users (though Middle Eastern cuisine is their favorite!). They’re also in market for low calorie and fast-food restaurants, which fit well with Subway’s health-conscious image. Beyond food cravings, the “Victory Tour Sweepstakes” and “Feeding America” fundraiser are likely to catch fans’ attention; this socially conscious audience is over 3 times more likely to be donating to charity and entering sweepstakes.

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2. CoverGirl Sponsorship: As the “exclusive makeup partner” for Catching Fire, CoverGirl created a campaign and makeup line themed after the movie’s 12 oppressed districts – focusing on the commodities that each produces for the elite, all powerful capitol (e.g. metallic and blue tones for the district that the capitol forces to provide fish).

Lionsgate explains, “The exquisite beauty and style in the world of the Capitol is a focal point of this film. Partnering with an innovative brand like CoverGirl to create an additional layer of beauty storytelling and inspiration for the fans is new territory that we’re delighted to explore.”

On CoverGirl’s end, the partnership increases their visibility among the Hunger Game’s substantial fashionista following, and, according to the company, is consistent with their commitment to breaking barriers in beauty.

Is there an audience for it?  Our data confirmed that that beauty products top Hunger Games fans’ shopping lists – 20 times more so than average internet users. Fans are also 7 times more interested in magazines, so they’ll likely appreciate the campaign’s magazine-like format (an online “Capitol Beauty Studio” packed with tutorials and inspiration). 

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3. Net-a-porter’s Capitol Couture:  Capitol Couture debuted in 2012 as a purely fictional promotional blog showcasing futuristic Capitol fashion. As it has grown more popular, it has grown closer to reality. In August, Lionsgate put up fantasy Capitol Couture billboards in NYC and LA, and now an actual clothing line is being released by the film’s costume designer, Trish Summerville. The collection will include accessories and 16 ready-to-wear pieces, featuring various leather and evening wear garments. It will be sold exclusively via online luxury fashion retailer Net-a-Porter.

Is there an audience for it? Whether the fans’ passion for viewing Capitol Couture translates into actually wanting to wear it remains to be seen – and of course depends on what the hotly anticipated line looks like. However, one thing is clear from our data – Hunger Games fans enjoy shopping for apparel and accessories, 21 times more than average internet users in fact!

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4. Hunger Games Theme Parks: Lionsgate recently confirmed that they are considering theme park opportunities – which has proved hugely successful with other book-to-movie hit Harry Potter. Public reaction has contained a hefty amount of understandable confusion and concern; the movie centers in a dystopian government in which children are forced into a killing competition – making it quite an atypical choice for a theme park!

Hidden Potential:  Males, Moms, and Music:  In addition to enabling us to assess existing tie-ins, our data reveals some fan interests that are not currently being catered to.

- Almost half of Hunger Games fans are male, and that was reflected in nearly every category of our data. The male audience is shopping just as much if not more than the female audience for clothing, so there seems to be strong tie-in potential there.

- Evidence of mothers also emerged prominently, with strong interests in maternity clothes, reproductive health, children’s shopping and other parenting topics.

Next Chapters: Inevitably, the audience will evolve with the film series. Exponential’s data, which aggregates 2 billion daily user events, captures audience changes on an ongoing basis. This empowers advertisers to continually optimize for evermore effective campaigns.